9th AIEAA Online Conference, 11-12 June 2020

Changes in climate conditions - reflected by increasing average temperatures, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events - consistently point to increasing risks to societies all over the world in uneven and multiple ways. Environmental, socio-economic, and agri-food systems are expected to be severely affected by climate change in the next decades. According to the Joint Research Center estimates for Europe, climate change is responsible for around 80-90% of projected changes in water availability and soil loss due to desertification processes and erosion. Climate change is also affecting agricultural land and crop suitability in many world areas: between 2011 and 2050, the global average yield across all crops is projected to decline by 1.1%, with variation across regions and significant impacts on Mediterranean productions (i.e. olive and grapevine). FAO reports that climate changes could lead to significant falls of food production and gross domestic product in the worst affected regions. Further bilateral trade flows and the net trade positions of countries and regions will be affected, with complex and varied positions across the European Union (EU). World Bank and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) estimated that around 140 million people may be displaced by 2050 as a result of desertification, while asylum applications to EU countries are expected to increase.

The harmful effects of global climate change on agriculture are unequally distributed across regions and countries, both in relation to the physical and environmental conditions, and depending on the sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity of local natural and social systems. The Mediterranean area is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the impacts of global warming, according to international reports and projection scenarios. The European Environmental Agency (2019) states that in the coming decades, the entire Mediterranean region is expected to experience severe climate events with diversified consequences on agriculture, depending on the adaptation capacities of different areas.

The debate on impacts and consequences of climate change on Mediterranean agricultural and food systems is particular sensitive and controversial, considering historical, socio-economic and political diversities. The Mediterranean region turns out to be a crucial crossroads of the people movements induced by climate change. Relocation and movement of people will cause an increased pressure on certain areas in terms of production (quantity, process and quality) and consumption, while entire geographic regions, due to land abandonment and reduced level of land protection, will suffer further erosion and desertification. Such migrations put increasing pressure on the geopolitical role of the region as well as its internal relations and domestic politics. Mediterranean countries, due to their geographical location, play a central role in the EU international relations. Current EU policy dialogue with the Mediterranean countries has been framed within the European Neighborhood Policy to strengthen relations with southern and eastern neighbors. Programs within Euro-Mediterranean Partnerships often promote initiatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Current and future policies for agricultural and sustainable development of Mediterranean countries need to prioritize climate risks considering agriculture multiple objectives – providing adequate food for growing populations, protecting the environment and ensuring resilience to future climatic change– in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Against the above scenarios, the 2018 evaluation report of the EU Adaptation Strategy invites enhancing the knowledge base and encourages new research and development, as well as innovation, in the field of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.

The 9th AIEAA Annual Conference aims to contribute to this debate, by addressing economic and policy analysis of impacts, mitigation and adaptation options for agricultural systems facing climate change.